Re: Re: Recession to Depression
By: Andeddu to Kaelon on Tue Jul 12 2022 09:22 pm

> I agree. The Russian Elites have been maneuvered themselves into a strong
> position and have shielded their public from the extreme hardship that will
> face The West's population. Their Elites are playing 4D chess while our
> Elites are playing Blackjack. We are getting destroyed every single day and
> the media can do nothing but lie and cheerlead us into what appears will
> become WWIII.

Yes. There is no doubt that heads of militaries across the NATO alliance have been predicting the eruption of a Third World War. For those of us actually in Cyber Defense, we feel that WW3 is already upon us because all of the cyber forces across the alliance are engaged with Russia and China. Geopolitically, it's inevitable - especially with the blockading of Kaliningrad by the European Union - that Russia will move against the Baltic Republics to re-establish a supply corridor, or worse, just subjugate them. Article 5 will surely be triggered, and Putin would love nothing more to see Article 5 fall apart, at least, before he perishes. (Which, if you read the intelligence leaks, could be within months.)

> The Chinese are in a far better position than any Western nation as they
> hold the master-production for all our goods. Now that they are seriously
> reducing their exports to the West, we will soon experince shortages and
> price hikes. All Xi Jinping has to do now is unite his population by
> creating a new middle-class, much like the USA did during the 50s-60s, in
> order to secure their position as the premier world superpower. They will
> soon have no use for the USA's soon-to-be worthless currency which has been
> effectively printed into oblivion.

I am not sure that I actually agree that China is a far better position than any Western nation right now. Yes, economically, they've centered themselves as the world's producer. But geopolitically, they are trapped. More than 80% of Chinese territory is actually largely unusable and unsuitable terrain, and given the distribution of this terrain and its vast population, it is largely constrained and, in essence, an island. And, let's not forget, it is really at least five distinct cultures with visceral hatred towards one another.

As the global economy collapses over the next 6-12 months, China will be forced to confront its reckoning on the disasterous socioeconomic mismanagement of its population. We're not even talking about the predictable consequences of the One Child Policy - which has resulted in a material disproportion of men over women, causing everything from forced marriages and mass-rapes in the countryside to modern chattel slavery of women in the cities - but broader population control measures during this Pandemic. That latter approach has resulted in a collapse of its metropolitan economies, and the loss of global trading prestige. No one wants to attempt to enter Chinese exchanges now, not even Hong Kong (for obvious reasons). What a failure.
_____
-=: Kaelon :=-

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Re: Re: Recession to Depression
By: Boraxman to Andeddu on Sat Jul 16 2022 02:38 pm

> Revolution doesn't mean revolutionary thought. We could have a "revolution"
> where Marxist-Communists take over. That is old thought.
>
> The problem as I see it, is that we are stuck with old ideas and cannot
> imagine any change. Economically, the debate seems stuck between
> "Capitalism" and "Socialism" (at least Socialism as envisaged by
> Marxist/Statists) and we think that we have to choose between the two. We
> can't imagine any new system or new novel ways of looking at property
> rights, or carrying on the evolution of our economic system further.
> Everything is petty. UBI changes nothing. Stakeholder Capitalism is just
> the same old system with a new face. Politically we are stuck again with
> old ideas. Nothing really new, except for maybe the SJW's, but that really
> is just rehashed Christian guilt.
>
> We're looking at all these problems, and can't think of any new direction to
> go in to solve them. We cant imagine anything outside the
> "Capitalism/Communism" dichotomy, so we are limited by that. We can't
> imagine anything oustide of "Liberalism/Conservatism", so we are limited by
> that.
>
> We need something like a new Enlightenment. One isn't coming.

I don't disagree but I see Capitalism/Communism as two sides of the same system
with us presently in the phase where Eastern Communism merges with Western
Capitalism which will be destined to collapse into the new world system.

There will always be the haves and the have nots, elites and non-elites. This
will occur in all systems old or new which have been authorised for our use.

---
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Re: Re: Recession to Depression
By: Kaelon to Andeddu on Sat Jul 16 2022 06:31 pm

> It's hard to imagine another currency being preferred over the United States
> Dollar, but we're going to find out soon enough. The EUR probably has
> another 20-30% more to decline -- parity with the USD was just a start. The
> RUB resiliance is a local silo'ed matter, and all Asian currencies are a
> total disaster right now.
>
> Arguably, many of these startups shouldn't have had access to the capital
> that they were able to cheaply get. Again, the short-term "syndicate
> corporatism," or "late-stage capitalism," as you rightly describe it, has
> painted myopic portraits of financial worthiness for what are, in essence,
> barely seed-stage proof-of-concept companies. They aren't even product
> companies (genuine startup material), let alone customer-centric
> corporations (those that are truly worthy of the public's risk-taking on the
> open markets). Fortunately, we're seeing a total liquidation of the
> bullshit SaaS industry. More than half of these companies are insolvent,
> and this year so far, 357 of them have laid off over 53,000 employees.
>
> Don't even get me started on the absurdity of trying to create economic
> currency models to stimulate voluntary restrictions on carbon emissions.
> Scientifically, it's too late for humans to impact the planetary trajectory
> (we would have had to make drastic changes to our agricultural and
> early-industrial model in the 1820s, for crying out loud); but, more
> broadly, Economically, this sort of faux-currency and exchange of "carbon
> credits" is creating economies that willingly self-sabotage any form of
> supply-and-demand and reward cheating-countries with unfair advantages.
> _____

I agree with much of what you've said and have little to add. 99% of the public
are completely unaware of the disaster that will soon befall us and part of me
believes that it's probably a good thing as they'll get to enjoy, what appears
to me at least, to be our last good summer before the world goes full Mad Max.

Once the world economy releases some of the air in the massive debt bubble that
has been created, we will doubtlessly see the systemic collapse of many of our
institutions along with our ridiculously over-leveraged banks. There will be no
bailouts this time resulting in the failure of the insitutions which were
previously deemed "too big to fail" thereby causing terrible disruption to our
lives. We just have to brace ourselves for what's coming.

---
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Re: Russia and China
By: Kaelon to Andeddu on Sat Jul 16 2022 06:43 pm

> I am not sure that I actually agree that China is a far better position than
> any Western nation right now. Yes, economically, they've centered
> themselves as the world's producer. But geopolitically, they are trapped.
> More than 80% of Chinese territory is actually largely unusable and
> unsuitable terrain, and given the distribution of this terrain and its vast
> population, it is largely constrained and, in essence, an island. And,
> let's not forget, it is really at least five distinct cultures with visceral
> hatred towards one another.
>
> As the global economy collapses over the next 6-12 months, China will be
> forced to confront its reckoning on the disasterous socioeconomic
> mismanagement of its population. We're not even talking about the
> predictable consequences of the One Child Policy - which has resulted in a
> material disproportion of men over women, causing everything from forced
> marriages and mass-rapes in the countryside to modern chattel slavery of
> women in the cities - but broader population control measures during this
> Pandemic. That latter approach has resulted in a collapse of its
> metropolitan economies, and the loss of global trading prestige. No one
> wants to attempt to enter Chinese exchanges now, not even Hong Kong (for
> obvious reasons). What a failure.

You've brought up some good points about China. I can see them creating a new
trading block with the other BRICs nations. They are also moving into the
Middle-East and securing much needed resources in conjunction with their
previous move into Africa.

I can foresee severe civil disruption occurring within the country which is
likely the reason for the implementation of the Social Credit system which is a
mechanism designed to breed compliance.

No country is shielded from the global downturn but I believe China will be
able to whether the storm better than most other nations. They have secured 2
years of grain supply for their entire population compared to Western nations,
including the USA, who appear to have only a 6 month supply in storage. They
have far better food security, more efficent energy production along with an
extensive manufacturing sector.

---
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Re: Russia and China
By: Andeddu to Kaelon on Sun Jul 17 2022 05:57 pm

> No country is shielded from the global downturn but I believe China will be
> able to whether the storm better than most other nations. They have secured
> 2 years of grain supply for their entire population compared to Western
> nations, including the USA, who appear to have only a 6 month supply in
> storage. They have far better food security, more efficent energy production
> along with an extensive manufacturing sector.

Well stated. Though, we certainly have the vast natural resources in the United States to potentially "go it alone" for some indeterminant time with regards to grain production and even energy. Not many countries can legitimately state this, and despite the radical grain disruption in supply chains out of Russia and Ukraine, the food spikes are largely inflationary and global trends, not reflective of some constraint in United States supply.
_____
-=: Kaelon :=-

---
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Re: Re: Recession to Depression
By: Andeddu to Boraxman on Sun Jul 17 2022 05:17 pm

> > Revolution doesn't mean revolutionary thought. We could have a
> > "revolution" where Marxist-Communists take over. That is old thought.
>
> > The problem as I see it, is that we are stuck with old ideas and cannot
> > imagine any change. Economically, the debate seems stuck between
> > "Capitalism" and "Socialism" (at least Socialism as envisaged by
> > Marxist/Statists) and we think that we have to choose between the two.
> > We can't imagine any new system or new novel ways of looking at property
> > rights, or carrying on the evolution of our economic system further.
> > Everything is petty. UBI changes nothing. Stakeholder Capitalism is
> > just the same old system with a new face. Politically we are stuck again
> > with old ideas. Nothing really new, except for maybe the SJW's, but that
> > really is just rehashed Christian guilt.
>
> > We're looking at all these problems, and can't think of any new direction
> > to go in to solve them. We cant imagine anything outside the
> > "Capitalism/Communism" dichotomy, so we are limited by that. We can't
> > imagine anything oustide of "Liberalism/Conservatism", so we are limited
> > by that.
>
> > We need something like a new Enlightenment. One isn't coming.
>
> I don't disagree but I see Capitalism/Communism as two sides of the same
> system with us presently in the phase where Eastern Communism merges with
> Western Capitalism which will be destined to collapse into the new world
> system.
>
> There will always be the haves and the have nots, elites and non-elites.
> This will occur in all systems old or new which have been authorised for our
> use.
>

Agreed. The story of Western Development is greater autonomy and self-ownership. Capitalism is the half-way step towards true economic liberation. Marxism has been the 'dead end' that we've been following, where we put the state in place of 'the people'.

The ironic thing is, my biggest problem with Capitalists, is they are SCARED of true economic freedom and strong property rights.

All too often, Capitalists speak as if they want to hand power to the select few. Communists and Capitalists just differ in who should have that power, but when Capital holders and the state align, that point becomes moot.

---
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Re: Re: Recession to Depressi
By: Andeddu to Boraxman on Sun Jul 17 2022 05:17 pm

> Re: Re: Recession to Depression
> By: Boraxman to Andeddu on Sat Jul 16 2022 02:38 pm
>
> > Revolution doesn't mean revolutionary thought. We could have a "revoluti
> > where Marxist-Communists take over. That is old thought.
> >
> > The problem as I see it, is that we are stuck with old ideas and cannot
> > imagine any change. Economically, the debate seems stuck between
> > "Capitalism" and "Socialism" (at least Socialism as envisaged by
> > Marxist/Statists) and we think that we have to choose between the two. W
> > can't imagine any new system or new novel ways of looking at property
> > rights, or carrying on the evolution of our economic system further.
> > Everything is petty. UBI changes nothing. Stakeholder Capitalism is jus
> > the same old system with a new face. Politically we are stuck again with
> > old ideas. Nothing really new, except for maybe the SJW's, but that real
> > is just rehashed Christian guilt.
> >
> > We're looking at all these problems, and can't think of any new direction
> > go in to solve them. We cant imagine anything outside the
> > "Capitalism/Communism" dichotomy, so we are limited by that. We can't
> > imagine anything oustide of "Liberalism/Conservatism", so we are limited
> > that.
> >
> > We need something like a new Enlightenment. One isn't coming.
>
> I don't disagree but I see Capitalism/Communism as two sides of the same sys
> with us presently in the phase where Eastern Communism merges with Western
> Capitalism which will be destined to collapse into the new world system.
>
> There will always be the haves and the have nots, elites and non-elites. Thi
> will occur in all systems old or new which have been authorised for our use.
>

That is why the concept of equal opportunity is now considered a bad thing.
If two people are in a container filling with water and there is a ladder
providing a way out, it is not guaranteed both will choose to climb the
ladder. Some start out in deeper water than others, then say the system was
stacked against them. Unless someone was blocking the ladder, it is hard to
excuse drowning.

---
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Hello Boraxman!

** On Saturday 16.07.22 - 14:38, Boraxman wrote to Andeddu:

B> The problem as I see it, is that we are stuck with old
B> ideas and cannot imagine any change. Economically, the
B> debate seems stuck between "Capitalism" and "Socialism" (at
B> least Socialism as envisaged by Marxist/Statists) and we
B> think that we have to choose between the two. We can't
B> imagine any new system or new novel ways of looking at
B> property rights, or carrying on the evolution of our
B> economic system further. Everything is petty. UBI changes
B> nothing. Stakeholder Capitalism is just the same old
B> system with a new face. Politically we are stuck again
B> with old ideas. Nothing really new, except for maybe the
B> SJW's, but that really is just rehashed Christian guilt.

[...]

B> We need something like a new Enlightenment. One isn't
B> coming.

Not many people think in terms of when enough is enough.

Sounds like there are some interesting thoughts by these
people:

[o] The Future is Degrowth: A Guide to a World Beyond
Capitalism | Paperback

Matthias Schmelzer | Andrea Vetter | Aaron Vansintjan
Verso Books | Verso
Political Science / Political Economy / Public Policy - Environmental Policy / History & Theory
Published Jun 28, 2022

"This book provides a vision for postcapitalism beyond growth.
Building on a vibrant field of research, it discusses the
political economy and the politics of a non-growing economy. It
charts a path forward through policies that democratise the
economy, "now-topias" that create free spaces for
experimentation, and counter-hegemonic movements that make it
possible to break with the logic of growth. Degrowth
perspectives offer a way to step off the treadmill of an
alienating, expansionist, and hierarchical system."

--- OpenXP 5.0.51
* Origin: Ogg's Dovenet Point (723:320/1.9)
� Synchronet � CAPCITY2 * capcity2.synchro.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/Rlogin/HTTP

Re: Recession to Depression
By: Ogg to Boraxman on Mon Jul 18 2022 08:44 am

> Not many people think in terms of when enough is enough.
>
> Sounds like there are some interesting thoughts by these
> people:
>
> [o] The Future is Degrowth: A Guide to a World Beyond
> Capitalism | Paperback
>
> Matthias Schmelzer | Andrea Vetter | Aaron Vansintjan
> Verso Books | Verso
> Political Science / Political Economy / Public Policy - Environmental Policy
> / History & Theory
> Published Jun 28, 2022
>
> "This book provides a vision for postcapitalism beyond growth.
> Building on a vibrant field of research, it discusses the
> political economy and the politics of a non-growing economy. It
> charts a path forward through policies that democratise the
> economy, "now-topias" that create free spaces for
> experimentation, and counter-hegemonic movements that make it
> possible to break with the logic of growth. Degrowth
> perspectives offer a way to step off the treadmill of an
> alienating, expansionist, and hierarchical system."

Haven't heard of this book, but it seems like one that is worth adding to my reading queue. A lot of people talk of "degrowth" but under the current system, we can't make any meaningful change. The key, mentioned in the brief you've quoted, is to democratise the economy. We can all choose to consume less, but we have little choice with regards to production. Most people are employed, and the company is controlled by a few who choose how much is produced, and we have to produce in excess to take part in the economy, to pay rent, buy a house.

Democratising the economy, giving people more power to self-govern their productive activities would allow people not only to regulate their consumption, but regulate their production (which is a form of consumption of natural resources).

---
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Re: Recession to Depression
By: Ogg to Boraxman on Mon Jul 18 2022 08:44 am

>
> Not many people think in terms of when enough is enough.
>
> Sounds like there are some interesting thoughts by these
> people:
>
> [o] The Future is Degrowth: A Guide to a World Beyond
> Capitalism | Paperback
>
> Matthias Schmelzer | Andrea Vetter | Aaron Vansintjan
> Verso Books | Verso
> Political Science / Political Economy / Public Policy - Environmental Policy / Hist
> Published Jun 28, 2022
>
> "This book provides a vision for postcapitalism beyond growth.
> Building on a vibrant field of research, it discusses the
> political economy and the politics of a non-growing economy. It
> charts a path forward through policies that democratise the
> economy, "now-topias" that create free spaces for
> experimentation, and counter-hegemonic movements that make it
> possible to break with the logic of growth. Degrowth
> perspectives offer a way to step off the treadmill of an
> alienating, expansionist, and hierarchical system."
>

As I have already mentioned, Keynessians are the ones accusing everybody from wanting
economical growth at any cost while being themselves the ones promoting growth at any
cost policies.

Meanwhile you can find books from Capitalist ideologues from the 40s who talked about
deflationary economies in a non-disfavorable light.

--
gopher://gopher.richardfalken.com/1/richardfalken

---
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Hello Boraxman!

** On Tuesday 19.07.22 - 20:40, Boraxman wrote to Ogg:

>> [o] The Future is Degrowth: A Guide to a World Beyond
>> Capitalism | Paperback
>>
>> Matthias Schmelzer | Andrea Vetter | Aaron Vansintjan

B> Haven't heard of this book, but it seems like one that is
B> worth adding to my reading queue. [...]

B> to consume less, but we have little choice with regards to
B> production. Most people are employed, and the company is
B> controlled by a few who choose how much is produced, and we
B> have to produce in excess to take part in the economy, to
B> pay rent, buy a house.

I would think that if/when people can be satisfied by consuming
less, then production/imports wouldn't be an issue.. and all of
us would settle into a 3 or 4-day work week.

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� Synchronet � CAPCITY2 * capcity2.synchro.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/Rlogin/HTTP

Re: Recession to Depression
By: Ogg to Boraxman on Fri Jul 22 2022 07:53 am

> I would think that if/when people can be satisfied by consuming
> less, then production/imports wouldn't be an issue.. and all of
> us would settle into a 3 or 4-day work week.

The reason we can't is because we don't really have economic freedom. We only get to control a minority of our economic decisions.

If we had more agency over our economic decisions that we make in our lives, I think we would gravitate towards less consumerism and have that shorter work week.

Most people who are "de-growthers" miss this very important point, and think we can make change without the power to make it. Think about what they say, they only talk about consumption. What is the BIGGEST economy activity that you will partake in? It is (if you lead a profitable life), production, your employment. Because your productive activity is controlled by others in a dictatorial way, you really have far, far less freedom and agency than you are led to believe.

The individuality and freedom of our Capitalist system is a lie. A shabby lie and it is time that people woke up to it.

---
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