Re: Re: Great Replacement The
By: Kaelon to Boraxman on Sat Jun 18 2022 05:26 pm

> Re: Re: Great Replacement Theory
> By: Boraxman to Kaelon on Fri Jun 10 2022 08:38 pm
>
> > The high number of Russian losses is quite staggering, considering how
> > quickly they were able to sieze territory at the start of the invasion.
> >
> > One has to wonder how far they will be willing to escalate.
>
> Agreed. There is a lot of scholarship inside of Russia's own military acade
> recapturing their territory, I think it's only a matter of time before Russi
> _____
> -=: Kaelon :=-
>

Russia wants the Ukraine for its resources. I doubt they would resort to
nukes on land they wish to occupy. Who would take a dump in th ecoffee pot
because they want the coffee all to themselves? It's hard to "Russianize" a
country if you give them a long lasting reminded why they shoudl hate you.

---
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Re: Re: Great Replacement The
By: Moondog to Kaelon on Sun Jun 19 2022 04:29 pm

> Russia wants the Ukraine for its resources. I doubt they would resort to
> nukes on land they wish to occupy. Who would take a dump in th ecoffee pot
> because they want the coffee all to themselves? It's hard to "Russianize" a
> country if you give them a long lasting reminded why they shoudl hate you.

I agree, but Russia can ill-afford outright humiliation and Putin's greatest fear is a stable, thriving, Slavic Democracy on his borders. He already has that with the Baltic Republics (which, let's be clear, he needs to invade next), but Ukraine poses a huge geopolitical risk for Russia. If Ukraine outright defeats Russia and starts recapturing Crimea, Donbas, and making advances against Rostov, the use of nukes is a given, essentially to force capitulation.

Russia has huge manpower problems right now, and its advances are costing it way too much to justify the continuation of this war. But by most measures, this war will last years if left to its own devices.
_____
-=: Kaelon :=-

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Re: Re: Great Replacement The
By: Kaelon to Moondog on Thu Jun 23 2022 06:42 am

> Re: Re: Great Replacement The
> By: Moondog to Kaelon on Sun Jun 19 2022 04:29 pm
>
> > Russia wants the Ukraine for its resources. I doubt they would resort to
> > nukes on land they wish to occupy. Who would take a dump in th ecoffee p
> > because they want the coffee all to themselves? It's hard to "Russianize
> > country if you give them a long lasting reminded why they shoudl hate you
>
> I agree, but Russia can ill-afford outright humiliation and Putin's greatest
> huge geopolitical risk for Russia. If Ukraine outright defeats Russia and s
>
> Russia has huge manpower problems right now, and its advances are costing it
> _____
> -=: Kaelon :=-
>

Putin will have the media spin the outcome to favor him no matter what. They
don't have to save face. They'll make it up

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Re: Re: Great Replacement The
By: Kaelon to Moondog on Thu Jun 23 2022 06:42 am

> _____

I don't think a proper war will last many years. With the debt bubble about to explode
in Europe and the bank about to stop purchasing more debt from countries that need to
sell debt in order not to go bankrupt, I think that if Russia is not forced to give up
soon enough, a number of European countries will got "crack".

It is interesting to notice the media is barely covering the fact we are at the brink
of a monetary apocalypse. This being Spain, the mood seems bright and party-like on
the streets but once you get people's tongue lose with beer the mood is quite
fatalistic. Industries that used to be employment powerhouses here are cutting down
production of goods for which there is demand because there are no raw materials or,
if they are available, they are too expensive to produce an end product at a price
people may pay. This reflects in people getting sent to unemployment.

Chicken food's price has multiplied by around two in a matter of three months. That
automatically refects in the prices and availability of hen derivated food. You get
the idea.

Anybody who wants to obtain a military victory over us needs not seek victory. He only
has to outlasts us.

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-=> Arelor wrote to Kaelon <=-

Ar> Chicken food's price has multiplied by around two in a matter of three
Ar> months. That automatically refects in the prices and availability of
Ar> hen derivated food. You get the idea.

Doomsayers in the US are panicked about the price of feed and hay. It's
going to get ugly.

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Re: Re: Great Replacement The
By: poindexter FORTRAN to Arelor on Fri Jun 24 2022 06:44 am

> -=> Arelor wrote to Kaelon <=-
>
> Ar> Chicken food's price has multiplied by around two in a matter of three
> Ar> months. That automatically refects in the prices and availability of
> Ar> hen derivated food. You get the idea.
>
> Doomsayers in the US are panicked about the price of feed and hay. It's
> going to get ugly.
>
>

all the prices are going through the roof. fish , beef, chicken.
soda, water, everything. not one thing is cheaper.

build back better.

atleast no mean tweets. and dont give me that 'it's happening all over the world' bullshit. when the usa sneezes, other countries catch a cold. we could have got it under control over here.
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Re: Re: Great Replacement The
By: poindexter FORTRAN to Arelor on Fri Jun 24 2022 06:44 am

> -=> Arelor wrote to Kaelon <=-
>
> Ar> Chicken food's price has multiplied by around two in a matter of thr
> Ar> months. That automatically refects in the prices and availability of
> Ar> hen derivated food. You get the idea.
>
> Doomsayers in the US are panicked about the price of feed and hay. It's
> going to get ugly.
>
>

Hay is not an issue here by the moment, but only because this area is rich
in grass and green stuff and we have had great weather for grass production
this year. I have stockpiled hay for the whole year already and so far the
deal has been fine.

Feed is getting expensive as heck since it requires grain, and grain
production last year was a bit disasterous. When you add inflation it gets
very ugly. One of Spain's top snack vendors has announced they are cutting
down production because the amount of affordable grain is very reduced. I am
not nervous about the feed because my horses have hay and pasture grass for
the main part, but sporting or work horses with feed-intensive diets are in
for a bad year.

--
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Re: Re: Great Replacement The
By: Arelor to poindexter FORTRAN on Fri Jun 24 2022 01:35 pm

> Re: Re: Great Replacement The
> By: poindexter FORTRAN to Arelor on Fri Jun 24 2022 06:44 am
>
> > -=> Arelor wrote to Kaelon <=-
> >
> > Ar> Chicken food's price has multiplied by around two in a matter of thr
> > Ar> months. That automatically refects in the prices and availability of
> > Ar> hen derivated food. You get the idea.
> >
> > Doomsayers in the US are panicked about the price of feed and hay. It's
> > going to get ugly.
> >
> >
>
> Hay is not an issue here by the moment, but only because this area is rich
> in grass and green stuff and we have had great weather for grass production
> this year. I have stockpiled hay for the whole year already and so far the
> deal has been fine.
>
> Feed is getting expensive as heck since it requires grain, and grain
> production last year was a bit disasterous. When you add inflation it gets
> very ugly. One of Spain's top snack vendors has announced they are cutting
> down production because the amount of affordable grain is very reduced. I am
> not nervous about the feed because my horses have hay and pasture grass for
> the main part, but sporting or work horses with feed-intensive diets are in
> for a bad year.
>
> --
> gopher://gopher.richardfalken.com/1/richardfalken
>

Hay is heavy. Big heavy things require fuel to move. Fuel is expensive.

---
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Re: Re: Great Replacement The
By: Moondog to Arelor on Sat Jun 25 2022 12:23 pm

> Hay is heavy. Big heavy things require fuel to move. Fuel is expensive.
>

Yes, of course, but here I am talking about moving the hay from a field in front of my hous, or
the next one, or the next one. It is not like I am having the hay shipped from a different
village or even a different road. ANd there is plenty of it everywhere this year.

Problems come when the year comes dry so not much of it grows. Then you have to haul the hay
from somewhere else or whatever and it is a pain in the ass XD

--
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---
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Hello Arelor!

** On Sunday 26.06.22 - 10:52, Arelor wrote to Moondog:

A> Problems come when the year comes dry so not much of it
A> grows. Then you have to haul the hay from somewhere else or
A> whatever and it is a pain in the ass XD

I thought you would opt for the horsepowered version in those
circumstances not the asspowered one!

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Re: Great Replacement The
By: Ogg to Arelor on Tue Jun 28 2022 10:00 pm

> Hello Arelor!
>
> ** On Sunday 26.06.22 - 10:52, Arelor wrote to Moondog:
>
> A> Problems come when the year comes dry so not much of it
> A> grows. Then you have to haul the hay from somewhere else or
> A> whatever and it is a pain in the ass XD
>
> I thought you would opt for the horsepowered version in those
> circumstances not the asspowered one!
>
>
>

Everytime I mention that to my darlings, they kiss me in the face but they show no
sign of wanting to do the work.

--
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---
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Re: Re: Great Replacement The
By: Arelor to Kaelon on Fri Jun 24 2022 04:14 am

> I don't think a proper war will last many years. With the debt bubble about
> to explode in Europe and the bank about to stop purchasing more debt from
> countries that need to sell debt in order not to go bankrupt, I think that
> if Russia is not forced to give up soon enough, a number of European
> countries will got "crack".

I agree that the economic picture is dire, but I don't think one can solely attribute it to Russia's invasion of Ukraine. The global supply chain remains (irretrievably, according to many economists) broken on the other side of the Pandemic (which, let's face it, is not yet really over, despite everyone's best wishes). Governments printing money have created the second serious blow with radicalized inflation that is truly "cracking" the socioeconomic classes and pushing us well past the Gilded Age in terms of the gulf between haves-and-have-nots. Russia's invasion is partly responsible for a disruption in the global grain supply, but it has also galvanized both Europe and NATO as a whole by shaking it out of its delusion of a "post-war" world order.

> Anybody who wants to obtain a military victory over us needs not seek
> victory. He only has to outlasts us.

Very true. There are deep systemic institutional problems in the European Union. But the speed with which France, Germany, and much of the EU's core countries have lept to move away from Russian gas and towards self-sustainability, not to mention radical investment in their own militaries, reflects a deep disquiet with Russia's invasion.

Furthermore, Russia has demonstrated itself to being a paper tiger. Its military failures are so vast that any outright "outlasting" of Europe will come at tremendous cost and certainly lead to its general collapse. China, on the other hand, is quite another story.

_____
-=: Kaelon :=-

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Re: Re: Great Replacement The
By: Kaelon to Arelor on Mon Jul 04 2022 11:58 am

> I agree that the economic picture is dire, but I don't think one can solely
> attribute it to Russia's invasion of Ukraine. The global supply chain
> remains (irretrievably, according to many economists) broken on the other
> side of the Pandemic (which, let's face it, is not yet really over, despite
> everyone's best wishes). Governments printing money have created the second
> serious blow with radicalized inflation that is truly "cracking" the
> socioeconomic classes and pushing us well past the Gilded Age in terms of
> the gulf between haves-and-have-nots. Russia's invasion is partly
> responsible for a disruption in the global grain supply, but it has also
> galvanized both Europe and NATO as a whole by shaking it out of its delusion
> of a "post-war" world order.

The quantitative easing that the goverment carried out back in 2020 when they
decided that almost 100% of the population would become "public workers" has
finally trickled down through all the asset classes to its final resting place
in consumer goods. This is why I laughed when the FED were calling the
inflation transitory as there was never anything transitory about it. They were
lying to us all along because the alternative would have been an earlier
recession which the Trump administaration would have tried to avoid at all
costs. This Ukraine war is a convenient scapegoat for our economic woes.

> Very true. There are deep systemic institutional problems in the European
> Union. But the speed with which France, Germany, and much of the EU's core
> countries have lept to move away from Russian gas and towards
> self-sustainability, not to mention radical investment in their own
> militaries, reflects a deep disquiet with Russia's invasion.
>
> Furthermore, Russia has demonstrated itself to being a paper tiger. Its
> military failures are so vast that any outright "outlasting" of Europe will
> come at tremendous cost and certainly lead to its general collapse. China,
> on the other hand, is quite another story.

Europe scantioned itself by refusing to purchase oil and gas with Rubles. The
public will remember that this winter when energy becomes unaffordable and
people have to choose between heating or eating. Heck, there's even discourse
regarding rolling blackouts during peak hours.

China are sitting pretty right now and have already made it known that they are
sympathetic towards the Russians... The West is not in a good position seeing
as almost all manufacturing and production comes from The East.

---
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> costs. This Ukraine war is a convenient scapegoat for our economic woes.

Indeed.

> Europe scantioned itself by refusing to purchase oil and gas with Rubles. The
> public will remember that this winter when energy becomes unaffordable and
> people have to choose between heating or eating. Heck, there's even discourse
> regarding rolling blackouts during peak hours.

But, but, but, there are a couple of Europeans in the FIDO Politics echo
claiming that all is wonderful on their side of the Atlantic, and that
things are only bad if you are American. :)

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Re: Re: Great Replacement The
By: Dumas Walker to ANDEDDU on Thu Jul 07 2022 04:56 pm

> > costs. This Ukraine war is a convenient scapegoat for our economic woes.
>
> Indeed.
>
> > Europe scantioned itself by refusing to purchase oil and gas with Rubles.
> > The public will remember that this winter when energy becomes unaffordable
> > and people have to choose between heating or eating. Heck, there's even
> > discourse regarding rolling blackouts during peak hours.
>
> But, but, but, there are a couple of Europeans in the FIDO Politics echo
> claiming that all is wonderful on their side of the Atlantic, and that
> things are only bad if you are American. :)
>

yeah they're morons. i remember one guy saying he takes a trip to america just to buy pants.

and they were bragging about how great the euro was years ago.
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Re: Re: Great Replacement The
By: Andeddu to Kaelon on Thu Jul 07 2022 02:19 pm

> The quantitative easing that the goverment carried out back in 2020 when
> they decided that almost 100% of the population would become "public
> workers" has finally trickled down through all the asset classes to its
> final resting place in consumer goods. This is why I laughed when the FED
> were calling the inflation transitory as there was never anything transitory
> about it.

Completely agree. It's amazing to me how the primary reason that history repeats itself is that people don't understand predictable cause and effect. The quantitative easing, the constant market growth at all costs, the ceaseless bailouts -- they're a repeat of the inflationary behaviors that largely provoked the two global world wars in the early 20th Century. I often tell other kids in the SaaS companies where I work as an executive that the dot-com bust informed us who lived through it what is about to come in software, and that every other middle-manager or executive who hasn't lived through or at least studied it, is full of shit if they predict what they think this is going to look like. Half of all software companies are already insolvent because they had no fundamental underlying go-to-market strategy that was reinforced by actual inherent value streams or sustainable recurring revenue models.

_____
-=: Kaelon :=-

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Re: Re: Great Replacement The
By: Andeddu to Kaelon on Thu Jul 07 2022 02:19 pm

> Europe scantioned itself by refusing to purchase oil and gas with Rubles.
> The public will remember that this winter when energy becomes unaffordable
> and people have to choose between heating or eating. Heck, there's even
> discourse regarding rolling blackouts during peak hours.
>
> China are sitting pretty right now and have already made it known that they
> are sympathetic towards the Russians... The West is not in a good position
> seeing as almost all manufacturing and production comes from The East.

It's horrifyingly naive. Look at the RUB exchange rate to the USD. Yes, it crashed during the weeks following the invasion, but it was mostly recovered by late April and now, it's higher than it has been in over five years!

https://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from=RUB&to=USD
_____
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Re: Re: Great Replacement The
By: Dumas Walker to ANDEDDU on Thu Jul 07 2022 04:56 pm

> But, but, but, there are a couple of Europeans in the FIDO Politics echo
> claiming that all is wonderful on their side of the Atlantic, and that
> things are only bad if you are American. :)

100% not true. The Eurozone is the area which is the most impacted by these
political decisions. I am already paying around 2x more than normal for my gas
and electricity bills and we have been warned that the prices are going to
increase AGAIN this winter. You Americans are complainig about the cost of fuel
however we are paying close to 2.40 USD per litre of diesel -- that is almost
11 USD per gallon. The cost of everything has increased substantially and a
huge proportion of the population are going to be facing poverty later this
year. This is a global economic issue so no one is shielded from this.

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Re: Re: Great Replacement The
By: Andeddu to Dumas Walker on Fri Jul 08 2022 03:43 pm

> gas and electricity bills and we have been warned that the prices are going
> to increase AGAIN this winter. You Americans are complainig about the cost
> of fuel however we are paying close to 2.40 USD per litre of diesel -- that
> is almost 11 USD per gallon. The cost of everything has increased
> substantially and a huge proportion of the population are going to be facing
> poverty later this year. This is a global economic issue so no one is
> shielded from this.

americans would never tollerate that. but dont test that theory because it's bad enough now. even though prices did drop a bit.

get drilling and get those truckers on the roads.
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Re: Re: Great Replacement The
By: Andeddu to Dumas Walker on Fri Jul 08 2022 03:43 pm

> Re: Re: Great Replacement The
> By: Dumas Walker to ANDEDDU on Thu Jul 07 2022 04:56 pm
>
> > But, but, but, there are a couple of Europeans in the FIDO Politics echo
> > claiming that all is wonderful on their side of the Atlantic, and that
> > things are only bad if you are American. :)
>
> 100% not true. The Eurozone is the area which is the most impacted by these
> political decisions. I am already paying around 2x more than normal for my g
> and electricity bills and we have been warned that the prices are going to
> increase AGAIN this winter. You Americans are complainig about the cost of f
> however we are paying close to 2.40 USD per litre of diesel -- that is almos
> 11 USD per gallon. The cost of everything has increased substantially and a
> huge proportion of the population are going to be facing poverty later this
> year. This is a global economic issue so no one is shielded from this.
>
> ---
> ■ Synchronet ■ BBS for Amstrad computer users including CPC, PPC and PCW!

I am happy because Spain used to be a poor Fascist country, so we have plenty
people with experience in how to deal with crap \o/

We rural rednecks have been the lautghing stock of the country for decades, but
fact is that during Francoism, when everybody in Spain was poor, the people who
lived in rural areas were the people who didn't starve. Nobody lived well - it
was a Fascist country - but if you had some square meters of land and a
chimney, you had enough to grow vegetables, produce your own eggs, cook it
all, and have spare heat for the house.

It is ironic but I think the people who are going to suffer the most is the
people who have been voting for "inflationist" politicians in Spain. Those are
typicaly concentrated in cities, and are going to have to buy their lettuces at
10 eurs per Kg. by the look of it.

--
gopher://gopher.richardfalken.com/1/richardfalken

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Re: Re: Great Replacement The
By: Kaelon to Andeddu on Fri Jul 08 2022 10:32 am

> Completely agree. It's amazing to me how the primary reason that history
> repeats itself is that people don't understand predictable cause and effect.
> The quantitative easing, the constant market growth at all costs, the
> ceaseless bailouts -- they're a repeat of the inflationary behaviors that
> largely provoked the two global world wars in the early 20th Century. I
> often tell other kids in the SaaS companies where I work as an executive
> that the dot-com bust informed us who lived through it what is about to come
> in software, and that every other middle-manager or executive who hasn't
> lived through or at least studied it, is full of shit if they predict what
> they think this is going to look like. Half of all software companies are
> already insolvent because they had no fundamental underlying go-to-market
> strategy that was reinforced by actual inherent value streams or sustainable
> recurring revenue models.

Our leaders are at fault for repeatedly selling us out to China for the last 30
years. We've somehow gone from being an economic and manufactuing powerhouse to
a hollowed out consumer based society with zero value. There is no viable plan
to reduce public services or shrink goverment to a sustainable level and even
during the Trump presidency I failed to see any tangible private sector growth.

Every successive goverment appears to believe they can print the difference
between tax revenue and outgoings year on year without creating problems down
the line. Well they are evidently wrong and the horror show numbers along with
the soon-to-be massive rise in unemployment proof in the pudding.

The issue we now have is that the can has been kicked down the road for so long
that there is no painless way to remedy the situation. I strongly belive that
everything is going to come to a head later this year or next.

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Re: Re: Great Replacement The
By: Kaelon to Andeddu on Fri Jul 08 2022 10:35 am

> It's horrifyingly naive. Look at the RUB exchange rate to the USD. Yes, it
> crashed during the weeks following the invasion, but it was mostly recovered
> by late April and now, it's higher than it has been in over five years!
>
> https://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from=RUB&to=USD

I find it amusing that Western leaders were criticising Putin for refusing to
sell energy for USDs when the US sanctioned oligarchs and Russian businesses by
freezing their dollar denominated bank accounts. The lack of basic awareness or
understanding from our ruling class is astounding.

---
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Re: Re: Great Replacement The
By: MRO to Andeddu on Fri Jul 08 2022 11:44 pm

> americans would never tollerate that. but dont test that theory because
> it's bad enough now. even though prices did drop a bit.
>
> get drilling and get those truckers on the roads.

The cost of fuel will go a lot higher this winter and nothing will stop that.
Biden is selling away your oil reserves to foreign nations which is great,
that'll help keep prices down!

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Re: Re: Great Replacement The
By: Arelor to Andeddu on Sat Jul 09 2022 07:18 am

> I am happy because Spain used to be a poor Fascist country, so we have
> plenty people with experience in how to deal with crap \o/
>
> We rural rednecks have been the lautghing stock of the country for decades,
> but fact is that during Francoism, when everybody in Spain was poor, the
> people who lived in rural areas were the people who didn't starve. Nobody
> lived well - it was a Fascist country - but if you had some square meters of
> land and a chimney, you had enough to grow vegetables, produce your own
> eggs, cook it
> all, and have spare heat for the house.
>
>
> It is ironic but I think the people who are going to suffer the most is the
> people who have been voting for "inflationist" politicians in Spain. Those
> are typicaly concentrated in cities, and are going to have to buy their
> lettuces at 10 eurs per Kg. by the look of it.

Well it looks like Spain will go back to those days again for at least the next
5-6 years. With the cost of fertilizer rising and historically low crop yields
in conjunction with the war which looks likely to spread through Europe, now
would be to grow your own food supply. Hard times are coming and it'll be the
pampered city folk who are going to struggle the most. I am sadly one of those
people in possession with little to no outdoor survival skills.

---
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Re: Re: Great Replacement The
By: Andeddu to MRO on Sat Jul 09 2022 03:13 pm

> > americans would never tollerate that. but dont test that theory because
> > it's bad enough now. even though prices did drop a bit.
>
> > get drilling and get those truckers on the roads.
>
> The cost of fuel will go a lot higher this winter and nothing will stop
> that. Biden is selling away your oil reserves to foreign nations which is
> great, that'll help keep prices down!

well biden is in bed with china so that's why.

honestly the usa has plenty of oil. i worked in the oil industry for almost 2 decades. if they are going to drill we will be fine.

with covid many companies sold out to their competitors so it might be a struggle to meet demands. they will do it, though.
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