Re: Re: Recession to Depression
By: Andeddu to Kaelon on Sat Jul 09 2022 03:03 pm

> Our leaders are at fault for repeatedly selling us out to China for the last
> 30 years. We've somehow gone from being an economic and manufactuing
> powerhouse to a hollowed out consumer based society with zero value. There
> is no viable plan to reduce public services or shrink goverment to a
> sustainable level and even during the Trump presidency I failed to see any
> tangible private sector growth.

I agree, and if you study root causes of our economic inter-dependence and transformation into a consumer-only society, the liability rests with the rise of corporate syndicates in the early 1970s after the demise of the Nixon Administration. All of the industrial and commercial infrastructure in the 1980s and 1990s, while largely responsible for dramatic technological innovation, has been solely focused on the consumer experience and hardly on the creation of systemic and inherent value streams.

> Every successive goverment appears to believe they can print the difference
> between tax revenue and outgoings year on year without creating problems
> down the line. Well they are evidently wrong and the horror show numbers
> along with the soon-to-be massive rise in unemployment proof in the pudding.

Once again, I agree. This short-term thinking is inherent to hyper-capitalist planning which emphasizes quarterly results and monthly incrementalism, so as to maximize shareholder value, but results in extremely unstable businesses and countless bubbles. Considering the example I gave in software, so much private equity and venture capital behavior has been designed to build these unsustainable capitalized experiments that return "3-5x" of their value to PEs over a 24-36 month period, that when they finally enter real market conditions and start stumbling with longer-term institutional investors, they become ripe targets for acquisition and dismemberment. Richard Gere's character from "Pretty Woman" must be sitting pretty with his business model. ;)

> The issue we now have is that the can has been kicked down the road for so
> long that there is no painless way to remedy the situation. I strongly
> belive that everything is going to come to a head later this year or next.

I agree. At least in software, the entire SaaS model is bloated and the sheer number of entrants in this space far exceeds the demand or business justification for them. Much like cryptocurrency / NFTs, and the craze surrounding massive returns over short periods of time, software itself has become a speculative asset with very little real value underneath it all. This is all coming to a head.

Final note - I am in workforce management as an industry, and late last year we started seeing huge shifts that have been building for over a decade, but are unprecedented in their scale. The Pandemic, the Supply Chain Woes, the Energy Crisis, and even the Wars and geopolitical re-alignment that accompany them -- these are all symptomatic and/or aggrivating factors of a much needed realignment in our entire economic system. And its collapse will be far worse than anything anyone has ever seen, but it really didn't have to be this way. Now, however, it's too late - and all of our institutions, from our government to our financial markets, will be liquidated in this process.
_____
-=: Kaelon :=-

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Re: Re: Recession to Depression
By: Andeddu to Kaelon on Sat Jul 09 2022 03:11 pm

> I find it amusing that Western leaders were criticising Putin for refusing
> to sell energy for USDs when the US sanctioned oligarchs and Russian
> businesses by freezing their dollar denominated bank accounts. The lack of
> basic awareness or understanding from our ruling class is astounding.

The arrogance is astounding, especially when humbler and well-informed economists were pointing out really basic facts that most second-year undergraduate college students would understand: Russia is isolated and silo'ed from the entire global economic system, and despite the collaspe of the Soviet Union and the following almost-gleeful pillaging of Russia as a country by the West, the Russian Elites skillfully manipulated foreign markets to borrow money ceaselessly on extremely favorable terms, but never integrated institutional safeguards, controls, or many of the other systems that ensure Russia would become integrated. The end result: Russia is its own entity, and very little that the globe does to force Russia economically will have much bearing, considering just how isolated Russia is.

China, on the other hand, is a very different story. China gambled big on essentially joining the U.S.-led economic world order -- a fact reinforced by the countless times that China has invested in, and bailed out, the United States as the titular leader of this order -- while concurrently preserving its authoritarian political systems. It has really worked to China's benefit, considering that by and large, China's greatest asset - its population - is also it's largest liability. China would have to contend with five distinctively hostile societies that are eager to tear each other to shreds and resolve centuries of disputes that would fracture the country, if it ever adopted anything resembling a consensus-driven liberal political system.
_____
-=: Kaelon :=-

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Re: Re: Great Replacement The
By: MRO to Andeddu on Sat Jul 09 2022 03:33 pm

> well biden is in bed with china so that's why.
>
> honestly the usa has plenty of oil. i worked in the oil industry for almost
> 2 decades. if they are going to drill we will be fine.
>
> with covid many companies sold out to their competitors so it might be a
> struggle to meet demands. they will do it, though.

There may be plenty oil but drilling for it goes against Biden's Green New Deal
which is the hill he is willing to die on. He has stated several times that
there will be no more drilling land or sea. None of that is very clever, if you
ask me, because you need a lot of refined oil and you need it fast.

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Re: Re: Great Replacement The
By: Andeddu to MRO on Sun Jul 10 2022 05:59 pm

>
> There may be plenty oil but drilling for it goes against Biden's Green New
> Deal which is the hill he is willing to die on. He has stated several times
> that there will be no more drilling land or sea. None of that is very
> clever, if you ask me, because you need a lot of refined oil and you need it
> fast.

he says one thing but does another. i dont think they've ever stopped drilling because these companies hold vouchers. they stocked up on them.
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> 100% not true. The Eurozone is the area which is the most impacted by these
> political decisions. I am already paying around 2x more than normal for my gas
> and electricity bills and we have been warned that the prices are going to
> increase AGAIN this winter. You Americans are complainig about the cost of fue
> however we are paying close to 2.40 USD per litre of diesel -- that is almost
> 11 USD per gallon. The cost of everything has increased substantially and a
> huge proportion of the population are going to be facing poverty later this
> year. This is a global economic issue so no one is shielded from this.

I will agree that it is global and no one is shielded.

That said, fuel has always been more expensive in Europe (and Canada, for
that matter). What percentage increase is the 2.40 USD for diesel? Here,
gasoline is over 4.00/gal USD, while diesel is close to 6.00/gal USD. Not
sure about diesel, but that is a 2X+ increase for gasoline here. In other
states, it is a whole dollar or more per gallon now beyond what it is here.

* SLMR 2.1a * Did you expect mere proof to sway my opinion?

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> > americans would never tollerate that. but dont test that theory because
> > it's bad enough now. even though prices did drop a bit.
> >
> > get drilling and get those truckers on the roads.

> The cost of fuel will go a lot higher this winter and nothing will stop that.
> Biden is selling away your oil reserves to foreign nations which is great,
> that'll help keep prices down!

Yes, he did that after telling us it was to make our prices go down.

He is asleep at the wheel and has no idea what is going on.

* SLMR 2.1a * STICK \'stik\ n. 1: A somewhat nonfunctional boomerang.

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Re: Re: Great Replacement The
By: Dumas Walker to ANDEDDU on Sun Jul 10 2022 02:44 pm

> > > americans would never tollerate that. but dont test that theory
> > > because it's bad enough now. even though prices did drop a bit.
>
> > > get drilling and get those truckers on the roads.
>
> > The cost of fuel will go a lot higher this winter and nothing will stop
> > that. Biden is selling away your oil reserves to foreign nations which is
> > great, that'll help keep prices down!
>
> Yes, he did that after telling us it was to make our prices go down.
>
> He is asleep at the wheel and has no idea what is going on.
>
>

maybe china has some videos of hunter biden killing prostitutes.
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> > Yes, he did that after telling us it was to make our prices go down.
> >
> > He is asleep at the wheel and has no idea what is going on.
> >

> maybe china has some videos of hunter biden killing prostitutes.

Here is one of him weighing his crack. Why would anyone videotape that?

https://youtu.be/Rj9V-XjCol8

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Re: Re: Great Replacement The
By: Dumas Walker to MRO on Mon Jul 11 2022 05:04 pm

> > > Yes, he did that after telling us it was to make our prices go down.
>
> > > He is asleep at the wheel and has no idea what is going on.
>
>
> > maybe china has some videos of hunter biden killing prostitutes.
>
> Here is one of him weighing his crack. Why would anyone videotape that?
>
> https://youtu.be/Rj9V-XjCol8

he's a biden. he's fucking whacko. he's recording himself smoking crack in a float tank and playing with his dick too.
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Re: Re: Recession to Depression
By: Andeddu to Arelor on Sat Jul 09 2022 03:19 pm

> Well it looks like Spain will go back to those days again for at least the next
> 5-6 years. With the cost of fertilizer rising and historically low crop yields
> in conjunction with the war which looks likely to spread through Europe, now
> would be to grow your own food supply. Hard times are coming and it'll be the
> pampered city folk who are going to struggle the most. I am sadly one of those
> people in possession with little to no outdoor survival skills.
>

I remember driving by a poor village with the boss when he told me he had been born
there. The village had a vibe of ruin and poverty. He started talking about the old
days in which nobody could afford transport and getting on a donkey on a trip out of
the valley was an adventure.

This was some years ago but I have been thinking of that conversation a lot as of
late, because I see it happening again.

--
gopher://gopher.richardfalken.com/1/richardfalken

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Re: Re: Recession to Depression
By: Kaelon to Andeddu on Sun Jul 10 2022 08:41 am

> > between tax revenue and outgoings year on year without creating problems
> > down the line. Well they are evidently wrong and the horror show numbers
> > along with the soon-to-be massive rise in unemployment proof in the pudding.
>
> Once again, I agree. This short-term thinking is inherent to hyper-capitalist plann
> Considering the example I gave in software, so much private equity and venture cap

I always hear Capitalism blamed for any politics involving growth at any cost, but
when I talk to Keynesians I always think the concept of shorterm growth at any cost
is a Keynesian one.

I had a lot of this stuff in 2008-2009. People was blaming Capitalism for causing the
crisis with growth at any cost politics. Then you talked to Keynesians and their
solution for the crisis was to print lots of money and give it away to the population
so they could keep on spending and spending in order to keep the consumist wheel
turning.

--
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Re: Re: Recession to Depression
By: Arelor to Kaelon on Tue Jul 12 2022 02:56 am

> I always hear Capitalism blamed for any politics involving growth at any
> cost, but when I talk to Keynesians I always think the concept of shorterm
> growth at any cost
> is a Keynesian one.

I don't disagree with you. To me, there's nothing wrong with capitalism - free and open markets have done more to improve the human condition than any managed system ever has in the history of civilization. That said, the complete and unbridled / unregulated market economy has had significant costs associated with it - chief of which has been rampant speculation in unsecured assets (such as cryptocurrencies), unmitigated disasters in the private equity and venture capital pre-IPO spaces leading to colossal loss in shareholder value over time, and now, most recently, the uncontrolled essential commodities market leading to a supply chain crisis.

Capitalism with safeguards and proper institutional regulation is necessary in order to build a long-term vision that ensures that vulnerable investors are protected from exploitation, and that companies have to demonstrate their actual value so that informed investors can be - well, informed! Private Equity, especially in technology, is largely responsible for obfuscating real value and there is now a reckoning where more than half of all technology companies in the world are fundamentally insolvent.

It is long overdue, IMO.
_____
-=: Kaelon :=-

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-=> Kaelon wrote to Andeddu <=-

> Our leaders are at fault for repeatedly selling us out to China for the last
> 30 years. We've somehow gone from being an economic and manufactuing
> powerhouse to a hollowed out consumer based society with zero value. There
> is no viable plan to reduce public services or shrink goverment to a
> sustainable level and even during the Trump presidency I failed to see any
> tangible private sector growth.

Ka> I agree, and if you study root causes of our economic inter-dependence
Ka> and transformation into a consumer-only society

I spent the afternoon in Silicon Valley, went shopping at an outdoor mall I
used to go to when I was a kid. We're in one of the most overpriced real
estate markets, and it felt like the number of retail shops had dwindled, to
be replaced by overpriced food and real estate offices. I suppose you can't
afford retail any more - Amazon will eat your lunch if you're selling
commodity goods and local specialty retail can't pay the exorbitant rent.

It's a shame.

Pay a ton of money to move into an area and lose the charm the area had in
the process.

.... This is it -- the center of the maze...
--- MultiMail/DOS v0.52
� Synchronet � .: realitycheckbbs.org :: scientia potentia est :.

> I had a lot of this stuff in 2008-2009. People was blaming Capitalism for caus
> g the
> crisis with growth at any cost politics. Then you talked to Keynesians and the
> solution for the crisis was to print lots of money and give it away to the pop
> ation
> so they could keep on spending and spending in order to keep the consumist whe
> turning.

Which leads to hyperinflation, of course.

* SLMR 2.1a * Perhaps this situation requires a more Klingon response.

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Re: Re: Recession to Depression
By: Kaelon to Andeddu on Sun Jul 10 2022 08:41 am

> I agree, and if you study root causes of our economic inter-dependence and
> transformation into a consumer-only society, the liability rests with the
> rise of corporate syndicates in the early 1970s after the demise of the
> Nixon Administration. All of the industrial and commercial infrastructure in
> the 1980s and 1990s, while largely responsible for dramatic technological
> innovation, has been solely focused on the consumer experience and hardly on
> the creation of systemic and inherent value streams.

Absolutely. We no longer have capitalism, we have corporatism otherwise known
as late-stage capitalism, which is essentially globalism. Governments are
monoliths that pry into every aspect of our lives compared to half a century
ago when they were serving as mere administrators. The Western economy is built
on war and the dominance Middle-Eastern oil. Once the USD loses its position as
the World Reserve Currency, which will no doubt happen very soon, the USA is
finished.

> Once again, I agree. This short-term thinking is inherent to
> hyper-capitalist planning which emphasizes quarterly results and monthly
> incrementalism, so as to maximize shareholder value, but results in
> extremely unstable businesses and countless bubbles. Considering the
> example I gave in software, so much private equity and venture capital
> behavior has been designed to build these unsustainable capitalized
> experiments that return "3-5x" of their value to PEs over a 24-36 month
> period, that when they finally enter real market conditions and start
> stumbling with longer-term institutional investors, they become ripe targets
> for acquisition and dismemberment. Richard Gere's character from "Pretty
> Woman" must be sitting pretty with his business model. ;)

Yep. We will see many fewer start-ups going forward now too as interest rates
have to continually increase to combat inflation.

> Final note - I am in workforce management as an industry, and late last year
> we started seeing huge shifts that have been building for over a decade, but
> are unprecedented in their scale. The Pandemic, the Supply Chain Woes, the
> Energy Crisis, and even the Wars and geopolitical re-alignment that
> accompany them -- these are all symptomatic and/or aggrivating factors of a
> much needed realignment in our entire economic system. And its collapse
> will be far worse than anything anyone has ever seen, but it really didn't
> have to be this way. Now, however, it's too late - and all of our
> institutions, from our government to our financial markets, will be
> liquidated in this process.

We are going to see a lot less capital going around resulting in another credit
crunch. The cost of living crisis is going to wipe away the remaining small and
medium sized businesses as the public are no longer going be in possession of
expendable income with which to visit resturaunts, drink in bars, go on holiday
and purchase luxury items. Like I mentioned before... fuel in the UK is has
risen by around 80% since last year and the cost of energy has risen 2x with it
being purported to increase 3x by this winter. Small and medium sized
businesses are NOT going to see the other side of this and will be forced to
let their workforce go resulting in mass unemployment.

Carbon Net Zero is a massive problem too and one which will seal the deal on
our path to destruction.

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Re: Re: Recession to Depression
By: Kaelon to Andeddu on Sun Jul 10 2022 08:45 am

> The arrogance is astounding, especially when humbler and well-informed
> economists were pointing out really basic facts that most second-year
> undergraduate college students would understand: Russia is isolated and
> silo'ed from the entire global economic system, and despite the collaspe of
> the Soviet Union and the following almost-gleeful pillaging of Russia as a
> country by the West, the Russian Elites skillfully manipulated foreign
> markets to borrow money ceaselessly on extremely favorable terms, but never
> integrated institutional safeguards, controls, or many of the other systems
> that ensure Russia would become integrated. The end result: Russia is its
> own entity, and very little that the globe does to force Russia economically
> will have much bearing, considering just how isolated Russia is.

I agree. The Russian Elites have been maneuvered themselves into a strong
position and have shielded their public from the extreme hardship that will
face The West's population. Their Elites are playing 4D chess while our Elites
are playing Blackjack. We are getting destroyed every single day and the media
can do nothing but lie and cheerlead us into what appears will become WWIII.

> China, on the other hand, is a very different story. China gambled big on
> essentially joining the U.S.-led economic world order -- a fact reinforced
> by the countless times that China has invested in, and bailed out, the
> United States as the titular leader of this order -- while concurrently
> preserving its authoritarian political systems. It has really worked to
> China's benefit, considering that by and large, China's greatest asset - its
> population - is also it's largest liability. China would have to contend
> with five distinctively hostile societies that are eager to tear each other
> to shreds and resolve centuries of disputes that would fracture the country,
> if it ever adopted anything resembling a consensus-driven liberal political
> system.

The Chinese are in a far better position than any Western nation as they hold
the master-production for all our goods. Now that they are seriously reducing
their exports to the West, we will soon experince shortages and price hikes.
All Xi Jinping has to do now is unite his population by creating a new
middle-class, much like the USA did during the 50s-60s, in order to secure
their position as the premier world superpower. They will soon have no use for
the USA's soon-to-be worthless currency which has been effectively printed into
oblivion.

---
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Re: Re: Great Replacement The
By: MRO to Andeddu on Sun Jul 10 2022 04:20 pm

> he says one thing but does another. i dont think they've ever stopped
> drilling because these companies hold vouchers. they stocked up on them.

I hope you're right. I would beg-to-differ though as I cannot see costs going
down. The economy has tanked too much and there is far too many infastructural,
geo-political and economical problems to keep the nation in a tolerable state.

I will, of course, say the same for my own country as our elites are also
recklessly destructive and breathtakingly incompetent.

---
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Re: Re: Great Replacement The
By: Dumas Walker to ANDEDDU on Sun Jul 10 2022 02:33 pm

> I will agree that it is global and no one is shielded.
>
> That said, fuel has always been more expensive in Europe (and Canada, for
> that matter). What percentage increase is the 2.40 USD for diesel? Here,
> gasoline is over 4.00/gal USD, while diesel is close to 6.00/gal USD. Not
> sure about diesel, but that is a 2X+ increase for gasoline here. In other
> states, it is a whole dollar or more per gallon now beyond what it is here.

You are right. The cost of fuel in Europe has historically been much higher
than in the USA. That is why it is rare the see any V8 gas-guzzlers on the
roads. Diesel has risen by around 42% since January '22 which includes a minor
cut to fuel duty.

---
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Re: Re: Recession to Depression
By: Arelor to Andeddu on Tue Jul 12 2022 02:47 am

> I remember driving by a poor village with the boss when he told me he had
> been born there. The village had a vibe of ruin and poverty. He started
>talking about the old days in which nobody could afford transport and getting
>on a donkey on a trip out of the valley was an adventure.

>This was some years ago but I have been thinking of that conversation a lot as
>of late, because I see it happening again.

I have been adamant over the last decade that we are living in the death throes
of our civilisation. I am very disappointed that I appear to have been
vindicated as being wrong would have brought me much joy. We are defnitely
going back to the hard times that you speak of.

---
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Re: Re: Great Replacement The
By: Andeddu to MRO on Tue Jul 12 2022 09:27 pm

> Re: Re: Great Replacement The
> By: MRO to Andeddu on Sun Jul 10 2022 04:20 pm
>
> > he says one thing but does another. i dont think they've ever stopped
> > drilling because these companies hold vouchers. they stocked up on them.
>
> I hope you're right. I would beg-to-differ though as I cannot see costs
> going down. The economy has tanked too much and there is far too many
> infastructural, geo-political and economical problems to keep the nation in
> a tolerable state.
>
> I will, of course, say the same for my own country as our elites are also
> recklessly destructive and breathtakingly incompetent.

everything balances out and goes in cycles. so even if something new gets thrown into the mix, eventually the same old shit will erode it down and it will go back to how it was.
---
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Re: Re: Recession to Depression
By: Andeddu to Arelor on Tue Jul 12 2022 09:43 pm

> Re: Re: Recession to Depression
> By: Arelor to Andeddu on Tue Jul 12 2022 02:47 am
>
> > I remember driving by a poor village with the boss when he told me he had
> > been born there. The village had a vibe of ruin and poverty. He started
> >talking about the old days in which nobody could afford transport and
> getting >on a donkey on a trip out of the valley was an adventure.
>
> >This was some years ago but I have been thinking of that conversation a lot
> as >of late, because I see it happening again.
>
> I have been adamant over the last decade that we are living in the death
> throes of our civilisation. I am very disappointed that I appear to have
> been vindicated as being wrong would have brought me much joy. We are
> defnitely going back to the hard times that you speak of.
>
I've thought that for a while too, and often I've wondered whether I should think that or not. But the further that time goes on, the clearer and clearer the truth becomes, we are in a severe decline and its not just me getting older.

I think the biggest problem is lack of revolutionary though. We are stuck with old ideas, with ideology, thinking that ideology (Whether it is Capitalism or Socialism) will get us out.

---
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Re: Re: Recession to Depression
By: Boraxman to Andeddu on Fri Jul 15 2022 09:04 pm

> I've thought that for a while too, and often I've wondered whether I should
> think that or not. But the further that time goes on, the clearer and
> clearer the truth becomes, we are in a severe decline and its not just me
> getting older.
>
> I think the biggest problem is lack of revolutionary though. We are stuck
> with old ideas, with ideology, thinking that ideology (Whether it is
> Capitalism or Socialism) will get us out.

Although the ordinary man may lack revolutionary thought, I believe there is a
revolution going on and we are moving in a very specific direction. It would be
hard for me to belive that there is NO PLAN once our civilation collapses...
there will always be a kind of contingency plan.

---
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Re: Re: Recession to Depression
By: Andeddu to Boraxman on Fri Jul 15 2022 03:17 pm

> > I think the biggest problem is lack of revolutionary though. We are
> > stuck with old ideas, with ideology, thinking that ideology (Whether it
> > is Capitalism or Socialism) will get us out.
>
> Although the ordinary man may lack revolutionary thought, I believe there is
> a revolution going on and we are moving in a very specific direction. It
> would be hard for me to belive that there is NO PLAN once our civilation
> collapses... there will always be a kind of contingency plan.
>

Revolution doesn't mean revolutionary thought. We could have a "revolution" where Marxist-Communists take over. That is old thought.

The problem as I see it, is that we are stuck with old ideas and cannot imagine any change. Economically, the debate seems stuck between "Capitalism" and "Socialism" (at least Socialism as envisaged by Marxist/Statists) and we think that we have to choose between the two. We can't imagine any new system or new novel ways of looking at property rights, or carrying on the evolution of our economic system further. Everything is petty. UBI changes nothing. Stakeholder Capitalism is just the same old system with a new face. Politically we are stuck again with old ideas. Nothing really new, except for maybe the SJW's, but that really is just rehashed Christian guilt.

We're looking at all these problems, and can't think of any new direction to go in to solve them. We cant imagine anything outside the "Capitalism/Communism" dichotomy, so we are limited by that. We can't imagine anything oustide of "Liberalism/Conservatism", so we are limited by that.

We need something like a new Enlightenment. One isn't coming.

---
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Re: Re: Recession to Depression
By: poindexter FORTRAN to Kaelon on Mon Jul 11 2022 07:30 am

> I spent the afternoon in Silicon Valley, went shopping at an outdoor mall I
> used to go to when I was a kid. We're in one of the most overpriced real
> estate markets, and it felt like the number of retail shops had dwindled, to
> be replaced by overpriced food and real estate offices. I suppose you can't
> afford retail any more - Amazon will eat your lunch if you're selling
> commodity goods and local specialty retail can't pay the exorbitant rent.
>
> It's a shame.

I completely agree with you. It's totally heart-breaking. But, practically speaking, it is now also a matter of life-or-death for many families and our very cities. It is entirely unaffordable - now on the other side of the pandemic - to live in or near any major metropolitan areas. At first, the suburbs (where I live) saw property values soar by 70% year-over-year as people fled the cities and went there to escape congestion amidst the viral surges.

Now, as the Pandemic is being better managed and the majority of Americans are vaccinated, people are returning into the cities. But we've got a passive catch-22. Mortgage rates skyrocketted in part due to inflation (9.1% right now is insane territory - people just do not understand how close to a total economic collapse we are) - and the rising property values extended to the cities as commercial real estate collapsed during the pandemic and owners needed to liquidate holdings as all surrounding businesses (specifically, the retail and restaurant sectors that were designed primarily to support commuters since the post-war period) failed.

Net-result: in Boston, alone, rent is up 28% year-over-year, and in Manhattan, rent has soared to an average rate of $5,000/mo. for your average renter. This is grossly unaffordable, especially since minimum wages haven't kept up with inflation for over 30 years (if they would have, the pre-pandemic minimum wage would have been $33/hour, and now the absurdity of arguing for $15/hour is still less than half of what average people need). As inflation catches up, and the city economic sectors collapse, we are going to see vast poverty across the country and the idea of home-ownership will end for all but those of us who already own outright.

The death of small businesses isn't the cause - it's the symptom. Of an unsustainable market that globalized and created pathways of efficiencies with just-in-time delivery and absolutely zero margin for failure. Well, it's all failed, and eventually, the cost of all goods will start to exceed the public's availability to pay for even the bare necessities.

You already see this in the price of food, all up between 9-30% for basic essentials: fruits, bread, milk.

We're all screwed, guys.
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-=: Kaelon :=-

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Re: Re: Recession to Depression
By: Andeddu to Kaelon on Tue Jul 12 2022 09:04 pm

> Absolutely. We no longer have capitalism, we have corporatism otherwise
> known as late-stage capitalism, which is essentially globalism. Governments
> are monoliths that pry into every aspect of our lives compared to half a
> century ago when they were serving as mere administrators. The Western
> economy is built on war and the dominance Middle-Eastern oil. Once the USD
> loses its position as the World Reserve Currency, which will no doubt happen
> very soon, the USA is finished.

It's hard to imagine another currency being preferred over the United States Dollar, but we're going to find out soon enough. The EUR probably has another 20-30% more to decline -- parity with the USD was just a start. The RUB resiliance is a local silo'ed matter, and all Asian currencies are a total disaster right now.

> Yep. We will see many fewer start-ups going forward now too as interest
> rates have to continually increase to combat inflation.

Arguably, many of these startups shouldn't have had access to the capital that they were able to cheaply get. Again, the short-term "syndicate corporatism," or "late-stage capitalism," as you rightly describe it, has painted myopic portraits of financial worthiness for what are, in essence, barely seed-stage proof-of-concept companies. They aren't even product companies (genuine startup material), let alone customer-centric corporations (those that are truly worthy of the public's risk-taking on the open markets). Fortunately, we're seeing a total liquidation of the bullshit SaaS industry. More than half of these companies are insolvent, and this year so far, 357 of them have laid off over 53,000 employees.

https://layoffs.fyi

> We are going to see a lot less capital going around resulting in another
> credit crunch. The cost of living crisis is going to wipe away the remaining
> small and medium sized businesses as the public are no longer going be in
> possession of expendable income with which to visit resturaunts, drink in
> bars, go on holiday and purchase luxury items. Like I mentioned before...
> fuel in the UK is has risen by around 80% since last year and the cost of
> energy has risen 2x with it being purported to increase 3x by this winter.
> Small and medium sized businesses are NOT going to see the other side of
> this and will be forced to let their workforce go resulting in mass
> unemployment.

Completely agree.

> Carbon Net Zero is a massive problem too and one which will seal the deal on
> our path to destruction.

Don't even get me started on the absurdity of trying to create economic currency models to stimulate voluntary restrictions on carbon emissions. Scientifically, it's too late for humans to impact the planetary trajectory (we would have had to make drastic changes to our agricultural and early-industrial model in the 1820s, for crying out loud); but, more broadly, Economically, this sort of faux-currency and exchange of "carbon credits" is creating economies that willingly self-sabotage any form of supply-and-demand and reward cheating-countries with unfair advantages.
_____
-=: Kaelon :=-

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