05/25/2021

The Atlantic Hurricane Season, which starts on June 1, promises to be a busy
time for radio amateurs who volunteer on the Hurricane Watch Net (HWN[1]) to
report ground-level storm conditions in real time for use by weather
forecasters, and for SKYWARN volunteers. The National Oceanographic and
Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has forecast[2] a likely range of 13 to 20
named storms (winds of 39 MPH or greater), of which six to ten could become
hurricanes (winds of 74 MPH or greater), including three to five major
hurricanes (Category 3, 4, or 5, with winds of 111 MPH or greater) expected.
NOAA projects these ranges with a 70% confidence level.

"2021 is looking to be another active season," said HWN Manager Bobby Graves,
KB5HAV. "We can only hope we don't have a repeat of 2005 or 2020. The sea
surface temperatures throughout the normal areas of tropical cyclone activity
are already near or just above 80 °F, just what storms like. The current
forecast for 2021 is on the high side. The adjusted average is 14 named storms,
with seven hurricanes and three of those at Category 3 or stronger."

When activated, the HWN operates on 14.325 MHz during daylight hours and on
7.268 MHz after dark. When required, however, the net will use both frequencies
simultaneously.

The net's primary mission is to disseminate tropical cyclone advisory
information to island communities in the Caribbean, Central America, along the
US Atlantic seaboard, and throughout Gulf of Mexico coastal areas. It collects
observed or measured weather data from participating radio amateurs in
storm-affected areas as well as any post-storm damage reports and passes that
information along to forecasters at the National Hurricane Center via its
amateur radio station, WX4NHC[3]. The HWN typically activates whenever a storm
system has achieved hurricane status and is within 300 statute miles of a
populated landmass - although this can vary according to the storm's forward
speed and intensity or at the request of NHS forecasters.

"Of course, it takes only one land-falling hurricane to make for a bad year,"
Graves said, recalling Hurricane Andrew in 1992. "It was the only storm to make
landfall that season, and it was a Category 5 storm that hit Homestead,
Florida, just south of Miami."

Graves said the HWN was already closely monitoring two systems - one near
Bermuda and one in the western Gulf of Mexico.

"Now is the time for communities along the coastline as well as inland to get
prepared for the dangers that hurricanes can bring," said Secretary of Commerce
Gina Raimondo. "The experts at NOAA are poised to deliver life-saving early
warnings and forecasts to communities, which will also help minimize the
economic impacts of storms."

Graves included a comparative table that shows predictions from Colorado State
University (CSU), Tropical Storm Risk (TSR), and NOAA, with the dates of their
respective forecasts. 

1991 - 2020

CSU

TSR

NOAA

Average

April 8

April 13

May 20

Named Storms

14

17

17

13 - 20

Hurricanes

7

8

8

6 - 10

Cat 3 or Stronger

3

4

3

3 - 5

"Last year was a record-breaking hurricane season," observed NHC Assistant
WX4NHC Coordinator Julio Ripoll, WD4R. "We even got to use the Greek names all
the way to Iota! This season is predicted to be an above-average active season
again."

Ripoll noted that WX4NHC will conduct its annual station test on Saturday, May
29, 1300 - 2100 UTC. "This will be our 41st year of public service at NHC," he
said.

The purpose of the weekend event is to test WX4NHC amateur radio operations and
operator's home equipment, antennas and computers prior to the June 1 start of
the Atlantic Hurricane Season. "This event is good practice for ham radio
operators worldwide to practice amateur radio communications available during
times of severe weather," Ripoll said.

Participating stations will make brief contacts on various bands and modes to
exchange signal reports and local weather conditions.

[1] http://www.hwn.org/
[2] https://www.noaa.gov/media-release/noaa-predicts-another-active-atlantic-hurricane-season
[3] http://wx4nhc.org/

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