Ka> Now that Russia is certainly not ascendant, and
Ka> China's future becomes increasingly cloudy, I think we're in store for
Ka> some very interesting and scary times. _____

Agreed with all but Belarus. Huge chance that of course that Union will happen as some shallow warranty that Putin/Russia owns it. But...

I still give them a fair chance to rebel.. and once that happens, Ukraine shows there may be allies with supplies at least.

For the scary times.. well to some degree yes, but also it's already known to past generations what's gonna happen and western world lived through it in prosperity.. it was called Cold War and stood still for 40 years, until USSR collapsed.

I think that the current cold war will not be any different.
Constant provocations to no real outcome and the West (USA/EU/JP/AU) will just isolate and create independence of Chinese supply chain and Russian fossils.. until the latter discover that they are still in XX century while other countries are already set for XXII - civilization wise.

Alternative reality is.. that by the end of this century, our grand kids learn Chinese as a second language, just like today English is taught in non-english speaking countries.

-h1

.... Xerox Alto was the thing. Anything after we use is just a mere copy.

Re: Re: Russia's Defeat
By: hollowone to Kaelon on Sun Jul 30 2023 11:47 pm

> Agreed with all but Belarus. Huge chance that of course that Union will
> happen as some shallow warranty that Putin/Russia owns it. But...

I enjoyed your take, and I agree.

Belarus does have a chance, but if you've been following a lot of the integration developments between Belarus and Russia, I don't rate the chance as particularly promising. For example, Belarus is socially far more Russian than the Ukrainians ever were, and the Russian language is still a primary language (with Belarussian being relegated to secondary and even pariah status). Social norms usually drive political ones, and we're seeing joint declarations of centralizing the Belarussian economy under Moscow's control. There is a pretty detailed multi-phase plan to fully consume Belarus, and I think barring Lukashenko's death and/or a mass public uprising against him, it will come to pass.

> For the scary times.. well to some degree yes, but also it's already known
> to past generations what's gonna happen and western world lived through it
> in prosperity.. it was called Cold War and stood still for 40 years, until
> USSR collapsed.

I was born in 1979, so I definitely lived through the final twist of it (and as a child of Cuban immigrants, the Missile Crisis and Bay of Pigs looms large in my upbringing). There's no doubt that geopolitically, Russia's fate is sealed as a third-rate power. But there are genuine questions as to what lessons China is going to take from this, and whether it will in fact move towards isolation and eventual collapse.

Remember, unlike the Soviet Union which was economically disconnected from the world, China is at the heart of the global economy and is the planet's factory. India has proven far less skilled and manageable in this regard, and while it has a very talented services sector, the world's help desk can't really easily replace China just yet. So this is going to have to be something that the West takes on with great expense.
_____
-=: Kaelon :=-

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