08/18/2021

The Hurricane Watch Net (HWN[1]) plans to activate today (Wednesday, August 18)
and Friday as Grace attains Category 1 hurricane status. Air Force Reserve and
NOAA hurricane hunter aircraft determined that Grace became a hurricane just
west of Grand Cayman Island.

As of 1100 UTC, Grace was 65 miles west of Grand Cayman and 350 miles east of
Tulum, Mexico, with maximum sustained winds of 75 MPH. The storm is moving
west-northwest at 285° at 15 MPH.

"This is one of those storms that make planning extremely tough," HWN Manager
Bobby Graves, KB5HAV, said. Hurricane Grace will make landfall twice, and,
Graves said, each one will take place at times when propagation on 20 and 40
meters is nearly nonexistent. "But we can only do our best," he added.

The HWN will activate today at 2100 UTC on 14.325 MHz and continue on this
frequency until it loses propagation. The net will reactivate on 7.268 MHz at
0000 UTC on Thursday and remain active until propagation is lost.

"Looking ahead to the final landfall, unless something drastically changes, we
will plan to activate Friday afternoon using the same start times," Graves
said. Grace is poised to make landfall on the Yucatan Peninsula Thursday
morning, moving over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico early Friday and then
making landfall again somewhere between Túxpam and Veracruz, Mexico, just
before sunrise on Saturday.

"This storm could make as many as three landfalls," Graves noted, if Grace hits
the island of Cozumel before reaching the mainland of Mexico. A Hurricane
Warning is in effect for the Yucatan Peninsula from Cancun to Punta Herrero,
including Cozumel.

The HWN invites "observed, ground-truth" weather data from those in the
affected areas. "The information forecasters need at the National Hurricane
Center includes wind speed, wind gust, wind direction, barometric pressure if
available, rainfall, damage, and storm surge. Measured weather data is always
appreciated, but we do accept estimated."

The National Hurricane Center predicts that Hurricane Grace will follow a west
to northwest to westward motion for the next several days. Some additional
strengthening is expected before the storm's center reaches the eastern Yucatan
Peninsula before weakening over land. Grace is expected to regain strength as
it moves over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico on Friday. Hurricane-force winds
extend outward up to 25 miles from the storm's center, and tropical-storm-force
winds extend outward up to 115 miles. 

[1] http://www.hwn.org/

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