04/13/2024

Colorado State University (CSU) hurricane researchers predict an active
Atlantic hurricane season (June 1 to November 30) in their initial 2024
forecast.

ARRL Director of Emergency Management Josh Johnston, KE5MHV, attended the
National Hurricane Conference in Florida in late March, where the CSU
prediction was issued. "The common discussion at the National Hurricane
Conference this year was the potential for a very active year, and the forecast
from CSU enforces that thought," said Johnston. "Several of the forecasters
were pointing to indications that we are moving from an El Niño to a La Niña
and that could potentially cause a more active season."  

The CSU Tropical Weather & Climate Research team[1] predicts 23 named storms
during the Atlantic hurricane season. Of those, researchers forecast that 11
will become hurricanes and five will reach major hurricane strength, as
measured by the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale[2], with sustained winds of
111 mph or greater. The prediction is above the 30-year average for hurricanes
and storms and is above the total of 20 storms, seven hurricanes, and three
Category 3 or higher hurricanes in 2023.  

Senior Research Scientist in the Department of Atmospheric Science at CSU and
the lead author of the report Phil Klotzbach said, "So far, the 2024 hurricane
season is exhibiting characteristics similar to 1878, 1926, 1998, 2010, and
2020. Our analog seasons were all very active Atlantic hurricane seasons."  

The team predicts that 2024 hurricane activity will be about 170% of the
average season from 1991 - 2020. By comparison, 2023's hurricane activity was
about 120% of the average season. The report also includes the probability of
major hurricanes making landfall, including a 62% probability for the entire US
coastline.

The average landfall from 1880 - 2020 was 43%.   The report also indicates
increased landfall probabilities of 34% for the East Coast of the US, including
the Florida peninsula (the average from 1880 - 2020 was 21%); 42% for the Gulf
Coast, from the Florida panhandle westward to Brownsville (the average from
1880 - 2020 was 27%), and 66% for the Caribbean (the average from 1880 - 2020
was 47%).  

The National Weather Service (NWS), National Hurricane Center (NHC), and
Hurricane Watch Net (HWN) are prepared for an active hurricane season. Amateur
radio operators can take part in activations on 14.325 MHz during the day and
on 7.268 kHz at night. As propagation changes, the HWN may operate both
frequencies simultaneously.  

At the Florida conference, Johnston also highlighted the relationship between
ARRL and the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA)[3], as well as ARRL's
position as a net control station within the SHAred RESources High Frequency
Radio Program (SHARES)[4] managed by the Cybersecurity and Infrastructure
Security Agency.  

"Now is the time to prepare for emergencies of any type by building
relationships, training and refreshing skills, and testing and preparing
equipment," added Johnston.

[1] https://tropical.colostate.edu/
[2] https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php
[3] https://www.arrl.org/news/arrl-and-fema-sign-agreement-ham-radio-is-as-relevant-as-ever
[4] https://www.cisa.gov/resources-tools/programs/shared-resources-shares-high-frequency-hf-radio-program

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