08/25/2023

Five new sunspot groups emerged this week, one on August 17, another August 18,
two more on August 21 and another on August 22.  

 Average daily sunspot numbers rose slightly, while average daily solar flux
declined. Average daily sunspot numbers went from 95.7 to 105.9 and average
daily solar flux declined from 154.2 to 149.4.

No big geomagnetic events this week, and average daily planetary A index
changed from 6 to 8.4 while average daily middle latitude index went from 7.7
to 10.1.

Predicted solar flux is 145 on August 25-26, 150 on August 27, 155 on August
28-29, 160 on August 30-31, then 165, 163 and 160 on September 1-3, 162 on
September 4-5, 158 on September 6-7, then 160 and 162 on September 8-9, 158 on
September 10-11, 155 on September 12, 152 on September 13-15, 153 on September
16-18, 155 on September 19, and 158 on September 20-23, 162 on September 24-25,
165 on September 26-28, then 163 and 160 on September 29-30.

Predicted planetary A index is 8 on August 25, then 5, 10 and 8 on August
26-28, 5 on August 29 through September 5, then 10, 8 and 8 on September 6-8, 5
on September 9-13, 12 on September 14, 10 on September 15-17, and 5 on
September 18 through the end of the month.

Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's Ionosphere
August 25-31, 2023 from F. K. Janda, OK1HH.

Although solar activity has been rated as low over the last seven days, let's
not be misled by an assessment based mainly on the number and importance of
flares. Solar activity continues to increase toward the peak of cycle 25,
expected in two years. Projected into the highest usable ionospheric F2 layer
frequencies, this means that we may finally be able to look forward to a wide
opening of the ten-meter band for DX shortwave contacts. If it occurs during
this fall, we can expect the 25th cycle maximum to be quite high after all.

It was pretty quiet over the weekend as all eight sunspot groups had stable
magnetic fields. Despite another large sunspot appearing in the meantime,
apparently magnetically connected to another sunspot on the other side of the
solar equator, there was still not much going on. Only the M1.1 0 class solar
flare on August 22 at 2304 UTC was an exception. But although it lasted long
enough to carry a CME out of the solar atmosphere, it evidently did not.

On August 23, a filament erupted near the southwest limb of the Sun. If it
envelops the Earth, it would likely not happen until August 27, with a possible
G1 class storm.

Max White, M0VNG sent this about solar wind: https://bit.ly/3YQToa7[1]

Reader Jeremy Gill of Seattle, WA contributed this article on aurora and the
ionosphere: https://bit.ly/44sRGgh[2]  .

Warnings about solar activity, some a bit shrill:

https://bit.ly/3qHy6za[3]   https://bit.ly/3YLsoc[4] 

https://bit.ly/3QNx8w3[5]   https://bit.ly/3OJRCTP[6]

A new video from Tamitha Skov:  https://youtu.be/lU8s7RmlSfE[7]

Send your tips, reports, observations, questions and comments to
k7ra@arrl.net[8] .  When reporting observations, don't forget to tell us which
mode you were operating.

For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see
http://www.arrl.org/propagation[9] and the ARRL Technical Information Service
at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[10]  . For an explanation of
numbers used in this bulletin, see
http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[11]  .

Also, check this article from September, 2002 QST:

https://www.arrl.org/files/file/Technology/tis/info/pdf/0209038.pdf[12]

An archive of past propagation bulletins is at:

http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[13] .

More good information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[14]
..

Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are at
http://arrl.org/bulletins[15] .

Sunspot numbers for August 17 through 23, 2023 were 135, 112, 104, 93, 102, 96,
and 99, with a mean of 105.9.  10.7 cm flux was 151.9, 150.6, 150.6, 146.3,
148.7, 150.9, and 147, with a mean of 149.4. Estimated planetary A indices were
8, 11, 8, 11, 9, 8, and 4, with a mean of 8.4.  Middle latitude A index was 10,
14, 8, 12, 10, 12, and 5, with a mean of 10.1.

[1] https://bit.ly/3YQToa7
[2] https://bit.ly/44sRGgh
[3] https://bit.ly/3qHy6za
[4] https://bit.ly/3YLsoc
[5] https://bit.ly/3QNx8w3
[6] https://bit.ly/3OJRCTP
[7] https://youtu.be/lU8s7RmlSfE
[8] mailto:k7ra@arrl.net
[9] http://www.arrl.org/propagation
[10] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
[11] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
[12] https://www.arrl.org/files/file/Technology/tis/info/pdf/0209038.pdf
[13] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
[14] http://k9la.us/
[15] http://arrl.org/bulletins

---
■ Synchronet ■ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS